The Envelope Blog
Data-driven writing about awards season: how often the favorites actually win, which categories decide pools, and how to out-pick your group chat. Every number is computed from verified winner history. Methodology included.
Updated July 2026
The Oscars Defending Champion Almost Never Repeats
Since 2000, the defending Oscar winner repeated in just 1 of 208 category-years. A 0% rate in Best Picture, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay.
oscarsstatspool-strategyStreaks vs. Turnover: Two Kinds of Emmy Category
Since 2000, one category ran a 6-year streak while Limited Series produced 26 winners in 26 years. Here's how to draft each.
emmysstatspool-strategyDo the Golden Globes Predict the Emmys?
Since 2015, the Golden Globe drama winner has matched the Emmy just 3 times in 11 years. Why January is a weak forecast for September.
emmysgolden-globesstatsWhat Are the Odds of a Perfect Emmy Ballot?
Copy last year's winners onto all 22 Emmy categories and you'd average about 4 right. Here's why a perfect card is closer to a lottery ticket than a strategy.
emmyspool-strategystatsEmmy Dynasties and the Upsets That Ended Them
The longest Emmy winning streaks of the modern era, and the upsets that broke them. What 26 years of streak-endings teach awards pool players.
emmyshistorystatsThe Emmy Categories That Decide Your Pool, Ranked
26 years of Emmy winner data, ranked by volatility: the coin-flip categories where pools are won, the dynasties you can bank, and the hidden stacks in between.
emmyspool-strategystatsHow Often Does the Emmy Favorite Actually Win?
Defending Emmy champions repeat only about one in five times across 26 years of data, so a copy-the-favorites ballot gets roughly 4 of 22 categories right.
emmysstatspool-strategy