A winning streak ends when the award goes elsewhere. Calling that an upset requires another fact: the defending winner had to be competing and expected to win.
Our previous article skipped that distinction. It described each change at the top as a dynasty being defeated, then used those examples to recommend betting against long runs.
What the archive shows
6 in a row
#The longest modern Emmy dynasty: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) won Lead Actress in a Comedy 6 years running.
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) closed its 6-year run in 2017. This records the run, not the chance of another win.
Julia Louis-Dreyfus won comedy lead actress in six consecutive ceremonies, from 2012 through 2017. The sequence is visible in the results. Those results alone do not establish why the sequence ended or how confident forecasters were about the next ceremony.
The same issue applies to series awards. A show's title disappearing from the winners list could reflect a loss, an eligibility gap or the end of the program. Those are different circumstances for anyone making a prediction.
What you need to call an upset
Start with the nominee list, then find forecasts published before the result. That lets you distinguish a surprise defeat from an award being passed to a new field.
Without those checks, there is no sound basis for saying a fourth win makes a show vulnerable, or that voters become tired of a champion after a set number of years.
For your Emmy pool, a streak is a reason to look closely at a returning nominee. It is not a reason to back or oppose them automatically. The repeat-rate explanation covers the same limitation across the wider ballot.